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Keçiörengücü vs Tepecikspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tepecikspor
Tepecikspor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Keçiörengücü70%
×Draw16%
Tepecikspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
2.76
Tepecikspor
1.16

Keçiörengücü creates 138% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
2.92
Tepecikspor
0.40

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.92
Tepecikspor
2.60

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Tepecikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Tepecikspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
86%
Keçiörengücü or Tepecikspor
84%
Draw or Tepecikspor
30%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
49%
Tepecikspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
94%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
76%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
51%
Tepecikspor 1+ goals
69%
Tepecikspor 2+ goals
32%
Tepecikspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
84%
Tepecikspor (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Tepecikspor away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Tepecikspor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.76

Tepecikspor attack 0.40 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
70%
level
16%
Tepecikspor scores more
14%

Keçiörengücü at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Tepecikspor

Keçiörengücü beat Tepecikspor 6-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.