Keçiörengücü 2–2 Kocaelispor: Result & Stats

Keçiörengücü

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kocaelispor

2/25/2024

1. Lig · Round 24Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Keçiörengücü44%

×Draw26%

Kocaelispor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchKocaelispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.12

Keçiörengücü

1.43

Kocaelispor

1.12

Keçiörengücü creates 28% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 55 away

1.60

creates per match

1.16

1.08

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

1.60

Kocaelispor

1.16

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.08

Kocaelispor

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Kocaelispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

70%

Keçiörengücü or Kocaelispor

74%

Draw or Kocaelispor

56%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

21%

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

76%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

42%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

17%

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

67%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

31%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

60%

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Kocaelispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kocaelispor attack 1.16 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

44%

level

26%

Kocaelispor scores more

30%

Keçiörengücü at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff