Keçiörengücü 1–2 Iğdır FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Keçiörengücü

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Iğdır FK

11/29/2025

1. Lig · Round 15Aktepe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Keçiörengücü43%

×Draw26%

Iğdır FK31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchIğdır FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Keçiörengücü

1.47

Iğdır FK

1.21

Keçiörengücü creates 21% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 38 away

1.60

creates per match

1.34

1.08

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

1.60

Iğdır FK

1.34

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.08

Iğdır FK

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Iğdır FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

69%

Keçiörengücü or Iğdır FK

74%

Draw or Iğdır FK

57%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

21%

Iğdır FK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

77%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

43%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

18%

Iğdır FK 1+ goals

70%

Iğdır FK 2+ goals

34%

Iğdır FK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

58%

Iğdır FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

43%

level

26%

Iğdır FK scores more

31%

Keçiörengücü at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff