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Keçiörengücü vs Giresunspor — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Giresunspor
Giresunspor
9/23/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 6Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Keçiörengücü49%
×Draw25%
Giresunspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.55
Giresunspor
1.04

Keçiörengücü creates 49% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 68 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Giresunspor
1.01

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Giresunspor
1.50

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Giresunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
75%
Keçiörengücü or Giresunspor
75%
Draw or Giresunspor
51%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
25%
Giresunspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
79%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
46%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
20%
Giresunspor 1+ goals
65%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
28%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
66%
Giresunspor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Giresunspor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Giresunspor attack 1.01 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
49%
level
25%
Giresunspor scores more
25%

Keçiörengücü at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Keçiörengücü 3–1 Giresunspor

Keçiörengücü beat Giresunspor 3-1 in 1. Lig on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.