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Keçiörengücü vs Galatasaray — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
12/5/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Keçiörengücü35%
×Draw20%
Galatasaray44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
2.02
Galatasaray
2.27

Galatasaray creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
2.92
Galatasaray
2.63

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.92
Galatasaray
1.13

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
56%
Keçiörengücü or Galatasaray
80%
Draw or Galatasaray
65%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
19%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
87%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
60%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
33%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
90%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
66%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
44%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Galatasaray defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Galatasaray attack 2.63 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
35%
level
20%
Galatasaray scores more
44%

Galatasaray at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Keçiörengücü 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 5, 2018.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.