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Keçiörengücü vs Diyarbekirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Diyarbekirspor
Diyarbekirspor
10/19/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Keçiörengücü70%
×Draw16%
Diyarbekirspor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
2.79
Diyarbekirspor
1.21

Keçiörengücü creates 131% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
2.92
Diyarbekirspor
0.50

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.92
Diyarbekirspor
2.67

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Diyarbekirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
86%
Keçiörengücü or Diyarbekirspor
84%
Draw or Diyarbekirspor
30%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
49%
Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
94%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
76%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
52%
Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals
70%
Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals
34%
Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
83%
Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.79

Diyarbekirspor attack 0.50 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
70%
level
16%
Diyarbekirspor scores more
14%

Keçiörengücü at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Diyarbekirspor

Keçiörengücü beat Diyarbekirspor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.