Keçiörengücü 4–2 Burhaniye Belediyespor

Keçiörengücü

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Burhaniye Belediyespor

10/31/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Keçiörengücü47%

×Draw20%

Burhaniye Belediyespor33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchBurhaniye Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.96

Keçiörengücü

2.33

Burhaniye Belediyespor

1.96

Keçiörengücü creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

2.92

creates per match

2.00

1.92

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

2.92

Burhaniye Belediyespor

2.00

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.92

Burhaniye Belediyespor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Burhaniye Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Burhaniye Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

67%

Keçiörengücü or Burhaniye Belediyespor

80%

Draw or Burhaniye Belediyespor

53%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

28%

Burhaniye Belediyespor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

90%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

67%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

41%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 1+ goals

86%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 2+ goals

58%

Burhaniye Belediyespor 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

58%

Burhaniye Belediyespor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Burhaniye Belediyespor away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Burhaniye Belediyespor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.33

Burhaniye Belediyespor attack 2.00 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

47%

level

20%

Burhaniye Belediyespor scores more

33%

Keçiörengücü at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff