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Keçiörengücü vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
11/11/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Keçiörengücü40%
×Draw27%
Bodrum FK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.33
Bodrum FK
1.18

Keçiörengücü creates 13% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 57 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
67%
Keçiörengücü or Bodrum FK
73%
Draw or Bodrum FK
60%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
18%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
74%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
38%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
15%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
69%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
33%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
55%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
40%
level
27%
Bodrum FK scores more
33%

Keçiörengücü at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Keçiörengücü 1–1 Bodrum FK

Keçiörengücü and Bodrum FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.