Keçiörengücü 4–2 Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı: Result & Stats

Keçiörengücü

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

12/4/2024

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Keçiörengücü54%

×Draw20%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeçiörengücüExpected goals in this matchBeyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.52

Keçiörengücü

2.27

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

1.52

Keçiörengücü creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

2.92

creates per match

1.13

1.92

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Keçiörengücü

2.92

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

1.13

allows per match

Keçiörengücü

1.92

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw

74%

Keçiörengücü or Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

80%

Draw or Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı

46%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+

33%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals

90%

Keçiörengücü 2+ goals

66%

Keçiörengücü 3+ goals

39%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 1+ goals

78%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 2+ goals

45%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)

68%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.27

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı attack 1.13 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more

54%

level

20%

Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı scores more

26%

Keçiörengücü at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff