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Keçiörengücü vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
4/2/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 30Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Keçiörengücü47%
×Draw26%
Beykoz Anadolu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.53
Beykoz Anadolu
1.10

Keçiörengücü creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 69 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Beykoz Anadolu
1.13

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Beykoz Anadolu
1.46

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
73%
Keçiörengücü or Beykoz Anadolu
74%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
53%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
24%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
78%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
45%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
20%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
67%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
30%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
63%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
47%
level
26%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
27%

Keçiörengücü at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Keçiörengücü 0–1 Beykoz Anadolu

Beykoz Anadolu beat Keçiörengücü 1-0 in 1. Lig on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.