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Keçiörengücü vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
8/17/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Aktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Keçiörengücü44%
×Draw26%
Bandırmaspor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
1.46
Bandırmaspor
1.18

Keçiörengücü creates 24% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 110 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
1.60
Bandırmaspor
1.27

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.08
Bandırmaspor
1.31

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Bandırmaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
69%
Keçiörengücü or Bandırmaspor
74%
Draw or Bandırmaspor
56%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
21%
Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
77%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
43%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
18%
Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
69%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
33%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
59%
Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 1.60 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bandırmaspor attack 1.27 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
44%
level
26%
Bandırmaspor scores more
31%

Keçiörengücü at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Keçiörengücü vs Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Keçiörengücü 2-1 in 1. Lig on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.