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Keçiörengücü vs Ağrı 1970 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Keçiörengücü
Keçiörengücü
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ağrı 1970
Ağrı 1970
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundAktepe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Keçiörengücü56%
×Draw18%
Ağrı 197026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keçiörengücü
2.79
Ağrı 1970
1.88

Keçiörengücü creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Keçiörengücü
2.92
Ağrı 1970
1.83

allows per match

Keçiörengücü
1.92
Ağrı 1970
2.67

finishing

Keçiörengücü+0.00on par
Ağrı 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keçiörengücü ↓

Ağrı 1970 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Keçiörengücü or draw
74%
Keçiörengücü or Ağrı 1970
82%
Draw or Ağrı 1970
44%

Winning margin

Keçiörengücü wins by 2+
37%
Ağrı 1970 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Keçiörengücü 1+ goals
94%
Keçiörengücü 2+ goals
76%
Keçiörengücü 3+ goals
52%
Ağrı 1970 1+ goals
85%
Ağrı 1970 2+ goals
56%
Ağrı 1970 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Keçiörengücü (draw refunded)
69%
Ağrı 1970 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keçiörengücü at home — creates 2.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Ağrı 1970 away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keçiörengücü attack 2.92 + Ağrı 1970 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.79

Ağrı 1970 attack 1.83 + Keçiörengücü defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Keçiörengücü scores more
56%
level
18%
Ağrı 1970 scores more
26%

Keçiörengücü at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Keçiörengücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Keçiörengücü 0–0 Ağrı 1970

Keçiörengücü and Ağrı 1970 drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Aktepe Stadı in Ankara.