KCCA 2–0 Tooro United: Result & Stats

KCCA

FT

2 – 0

Tooro United

10/30/2021

Premier League · Round 4MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

KCCA76%

×Draw16%

Tooro United8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCCAExpected goals in this matchTooro United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.65

KCCA

2.41

Tooro United

0.65

KCCA creates 271% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

2.14

creates per match

0.59

0.71

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

KCCA

2.14

Tooro United

0.59

allows per match

KCCA

0.71

Tooro United

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par

Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Tooro United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

KCCA or draw

92%

KCCA or Tooro United

84%

Draw or Tooro United

24%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+

53%

Tooro United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals

91%

KCCA 2+ goals

69%

KCCA 3+ goals

43%

Tooro United 1+ goals

48%

Tooro United 2+ goals

14%

Tooro United 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)

90%

Tooro United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.41

Tooro United attack 0.59 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

KCCA scores more

76%

level

16%

Tooro United scores more

8%

KCCA at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff