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KCCA vs Mbale Heroes — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Mbale Heroes
Mbale Heroes
3/8/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCCA78%
×Draw15%
Mbale Heroes7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
2.47
Mbale Heroes
0.62

KCCA creates 298% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Mbale Heroes
0.53

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Mbale Heroes
2.80

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Mbale Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Mbale Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
93%
KCCA or Mbale Heroes
85%
Draw or Mbale Heroes
22%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
55%
Mbale Heroes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
91%
KCCA 2+ goals
70%
KCCA 3+ goals
44%
Mbale Heroes 1+ goals
46%
Mbale Heroes 2+ goals
13%
Mbale Heroes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
91%
Mbale Heroes (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Mbale Heroes away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Mbale Heroes defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.47

Mbale Heroes attack 0.53 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

KCCA scores more
78%
level
15%
Mbale Heroes scores more
7%

KCCA at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: KCCA 5–0 Mbale Heroes

KCCA beat Mbale Heroes 5-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.