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KCCA vs Kitara — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kitara
Kitara
4/17/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

KCCA58%
×Draw23%
Kitara19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
1.77
Kitara
0.91

KCCA creates 95% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 57 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Kitara
1.11

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Kitara
1.40

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Kitara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
81%
KCCA or Kitara
77%
Draw or Kitara
42%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
33%
Kitara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
83%
KCCA 2+ goals
53%
KCCA 3+ goals
26%
Kitara 1+ goals
60%
Kitara 2+ goals
23%
Kitara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
75%
Kitara (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kitara attack 1.11 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KCCA scores more
58%
level
23%
Kitara scores more
19%

KCCA at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCCA vs Kitara

KCCA beat Kitara 1-0 in Premier League on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium.