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KCCA vs Gaddafi — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Gaddafi
Gaddafi
12/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

KCCA68%
×Draw20%
Gaddafi12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
1.98
Gaddafi
0.69

KCCA creates 187% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 44 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Gaddafi
0.66

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Gaddafi
1.82

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Gaddafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
88%
KCCA or Gaddafi
80%
Draw or Gaddafi
32%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
42%
Gaddafi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
86%
KCCA 2+ goals
59%
KCCA 3+ goals
31%
Gaddafi 1+ goals
50%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
15%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
85%
Gaddafi (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

KCCA scores more
68%
level
20%
Gaddafi scores more
12%

KCCA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCCA vs Gaddafi

KCCA beat Gaddafi 6-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at MTN Omondi Stadium in Kampala.