KCCA 0–1 Entebbe UPPC: Result & Stats

KCCA

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Entebbe UPPC

1/30/2026

Premier League · Round 15MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCCA52%

×Draw27%

Entebbe UPPC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCCAExpected goals in this matchEntebbe UPPC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

KCCA

1.47

Entebbe UPPC

0.85

KCCA creates 73% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 15 away

2.14

creates per match

1.00

0.71

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

KCCA

2.14

Entebbe UPPC

1.00

allows per match

KCCA

0.71

Entebbe UPPC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par

Entebbe UPPC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Entebbe UPPC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

KCCA or draw

78%

KCCA or Entebbe UPPC

73%

Draw or Entebbe UPPC

48%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+

26%

Entebbe UPPC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals

77%

KCCA 2+ goals

43%

KCCA 3+ goals

18%

Entebbe UPPC 1+ goals

57%

Entebbe UPPC 2+ goals

21%

Entebbe UPPC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)

70%

Entebbe UPPC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Entebbe UPPC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Entebbe UPPC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Entebbe UPPC attack 1.00 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KCCA scores more

52%

level

27%

Entebbe UPPC scores more

22%

KCCA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff