KCCA 5–0 Bright Stars: Result & Stats

KCCA

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Bright Stars

3/28/2025

Premier League · Round 21MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

KCCA61%

×Draw23%

Bright Stars16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCCAExpected goals in this matchBright Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.78

KCCA

1.77

Bright Stars

0.78

KCCA creates 127% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 83 away

2.14

creates per match

0.86

0.71

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

KCCA

2.14

Bright Stars

0.86

allows per match

KCCA

0.71

Bright Stars

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par

Bright Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Bright Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

KCCA or draw

84%

KCCA or Bright Stars

77%

Draw or Bright Stars

39%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+

35%

Bright Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals

83%

KCCA 2+ goals

53%

KCCA 3+ goals

26%

Bright Stars 1+ goals

54%

Bright Stars 2+ goals

18%

Bright Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)

79%

Bright Stars (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Bright Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Bright Stars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bright Stars attack 0.86 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

KCCA scores more

61%

level

23%

Bright Stars scores more

16%

KCCA at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff