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KCCA vs Arua Hill — Premier League 2019

KCCA
KCCA
CANC
13:00
Arua Hill
Arua Hill
3/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20MTN Omondi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KCCA62%
×Draw23%
Arua Hill15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCCA
1.78
Arua Hill
0.73

KCCA creates 144% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 36 away

creates per match

KCCA
2.14
Arua Hill
0.75

allows per match

KCCA
0.71
Arua Hill
1.42

finishing

KCCA+0.00on par
Arua Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCCA ↓

Arua Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KCCA or draw
85%
KCCA or Arua Hill
77%
Draw or Arua Hill
38%

Winning margin

KCCA wins by 2+
36%
Arua Hill wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

KCCA 1+ goals
83%
KCCA 2+ goals
53%
KCCA 3+ goals
26%
Arua Hill 1+ goals
52%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
17%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KCCA (draw refunded)
81%
Arua Hill (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCCA at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.71 · 99 matches

Arua Hill away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCCA attack 2.14 + Arua Hill defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Arua Hill attack 0.75 + KCCA defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

KCCA scores more
62%
level
23%
Arua Hill scores more
15%

KCCA at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "KCCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KCCA vs Arua Hill — Match Preview

KCCA face Arua Hill on March 13, 2024 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KCCA host Arua Hill at MTN Omondi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.