KCB 2–1 Zoo Kericho: Result & Stats

KCB

FT

2 – 1

Zoo Kericho

10/26/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 7Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

KCB51%

×Draw26%

Zoo Kericho23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCBExpected goals in this matchZoo Kericho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

KCB

1.54

Zoo Kericho

0.94

KCB creates 64% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 52 away

1.14

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

KCB

1.14

Zoo Kericho

0.90

allows per match

KCB

0.97

Zoo Kericho

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCB+0.00on par

Zoo Kericho+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Zoo Kericho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

KCB or draw

77%

KCB or Zoo Kericho

74%

Draw or Zoo Kericho

49%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+

26%

Zoo Kericho wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals

79%

KCB 2+ goals

45%

KCB 3+ goals

20%

Zoo Kericho 1+ goals

61%

Zoo Kericho 2+ goals

24%

Zoo Kericho 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)

69%

Zoo Kericho (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Zoo Kericho away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Zoo Kericho defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Zoo Kericho attack 0.90 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

KCB scores more

51%

level

26%

Zoo Kericho scores more

23%

KCB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff