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KCB vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
3 – 1
Western Stima
Western Stima
V. Omondi 72'
H. Onyango 63'
S. Abuko 26' (pen)
O. Kennedy 52'
1/24/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Afraha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KCB42%
×Draw29%
Western Stima29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.25
Western Stima
0.99

KCB creates 26% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 45 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Western Stima
1.02

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Western Stima
1.36

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KCB or draw
71%
KCB or Western Stima
71%
Draw or Western Stima
58%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
19%
Western Stima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
71%
KCB 2+ goals
36%
KCB 3+ goals
13%
Western Stima 1+ goals
63%
Western Stima 2+ goals
26%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
59%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Western Stima defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Western Stima attack 1.02 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KCB scores more
42%
level
29%
Western Stima scores more
29%

KCB at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
S. AbukoPenalty
52'
O. Kennedy
63'
H. Onyango
72'
V. Omondi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs Western Stima

KCB beat Western Stima 3-1 in FKF Premier League on January 24, 2021.

Goals: S. Abuko (26' pen), O. Kennedy (52'), H. Onyango (63'), V. Omondi (72').

The match was played at Afraha Stadium in Nakuru.