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KCB vs Western Stima — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
1 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
4/14/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB45%
×Draw26%
Western Stima28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.44
Western Stima
1.08

KCB creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
Western Stima
1.29

allows per match

KCB
0.87
Western Stima
1.00

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KCB or draw
72%
KCB or Western Stima
74%
Draw or Western Stima
55%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
22%
Western Stima wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
76%
KCB 2+ goals
42%
KCB 3+ goals
18%
Western Stima 1+ goals
66%
Western Stima 2+ goals
29%
Western Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
62%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Western Stima away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + Western Stima defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Western Stima attack 1.29 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KCB scores more
45%
level
26%
Western Stima scores more
28%

KCB at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs Western Stima

Western Stima beat KCB 2-1 in Super League on April 14, 2018.