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KCB vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
3/12/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

KCB46%
×Draw29%
Wazito FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.29
Wazito FC
0.86

KCB creates 50% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 77 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KCB or draw
75%
KCB or Wazito FC
71%
Draw or Wazito FC
54%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
21%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
72%
KCB 2+ goals
37%
KCB 3+ goals
14%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
58%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
21%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
65%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KCB scores more
46%
level
29%
Wazito FC scores more
25%

KCB at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 2–0 Wazito FC

KCB beat Wazito FC 2-0 in FKF Premier League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.