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KCB vs Ulinzi Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Ulinzi Stars
Ulinzi Stars
4/18/2026FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 28Ulinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

KCB38%
×Draw31%
Ulinzi Stars31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.04
Ulinzi Stars
0.92

KCB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 146 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Ulinzi Stars
0.86

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Ulinzi Stars
0.95

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Ulinzi Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

KCB or draw
69%
KCB or Ulinzi Stars
69%
Draw or Ulinzi Stars
62%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
15%
Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
65%
KCB 2+ goals
28%
KCB 3+ goals
9%
Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals
60%
Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals
23%
Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
55%
Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

KCB scores more
38%
level
31%
Ulinzi Stars scores more
31%

KCB at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 2–3 Ulinzi Stars

Ulinzi Stars beat KCB 3-2 in FKF Premier League on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.