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KCB vs Kenya Police — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
2 – 1
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
10/30/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

KCB33%
×Draw30%
Kenya Police37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.02
Kenya Police
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 10 away

creates per match

KCB
1.14
Kenya Police
1.20

allows per match

KCB
0.97
Kenya Police
0.90

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

KCB or draw
63%
KCB or Kenya Police
70%
Draw or Kenya Police
67%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
13%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
64%
KCB 2+ goals
27%
KCB 3+ goals
8%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
66%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
29%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
48%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 130 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.14 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + KCB defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

KCB scores more
33%
level
30%
Kenya Police scores more
37%

Kenya Police at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 2–1 Kenya Police

KCB beat Kenya Police 2-1 in FKF Premier League on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.