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KCB vs Kangemi All Stars — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
2 – 1
Kangemi All Stars
Kangemi All Stars
7/28/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB57%
×Draw23%
Kangemi All Stars20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.79
Kangemi All Stars
0.94

KCB creates 90% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
Kangemi All Stars
1.00

allows per match

KCB
0.87
Kangemi All Stars
1.72

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Kangemi All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

KCB or draw
80%
KCB or Kangemi All Stars
77%
Draw or Kangemi All Stars
43%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
33%
Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
83%
KCB 2+ goals
53%
KCB 3+ goals
26%
Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals
61%
Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals
24%
Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
75%
Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KCB scores more
57%
level
23%
Kangemi All Stars scores more
20%

KCB at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KCB 2 – 1 Kangemi All Stars

KCB beat Kangemi All Stars 2-1 in Super League on July 28, 2018.