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KCB vs Homeboyz — Shield Cup 2022

KCB
KCBadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Homeboyz
Homeboyz
4/27/2024Shield CupShield Cup · Quarter-finalsDandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KCB43%
×Draw33%
Homeboyz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.04
Homeboyz
0.71

KCB creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

KCB
1.33
Homeboyz
0.75

allows per match

KCB
0.67
Homeboyz
0.75

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Homeboyz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Homeboyz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

KCB or draw
75%
KCB or Homeboyz
67%
Draw or Homeboyz
57%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
17%
Homeboyz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
65%
KCB 2+ goals
28%
KCB 3+ goals
9%
Homeboyz 1+ goals
51%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
16%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
63%
Homeboyz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Homeboyz away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.33 + Homeboyz defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Homeboyz attack 0.75 + KCB defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KCB scores more
43%
level
33%
Homeboyz scores more
25%

KCB at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs Homeboyz

KCB beat Homeboyz 1-0 in Shield Cup on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.