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KCB vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
2 – 0
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
5/12/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB57%
×Draw25%
Coast Stima19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.63
Coast Stima
0.82

KCB creates 99% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

KCB
1.87
Coast Stima
0.78

allows per match

KCB
0.87
Coast Stima
1.39

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KCB or draw
81%
KCB or Coast Stima
75%
Draw or Coast Stima
43%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
31%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
80%
KCB 2+ goals
48%
KCB 3+ goals
22%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
56%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
20%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
75%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.63

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KCB scores more
57%
level
25%
Coast Stima scores more
19%

KCB at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KCB vs Coast Stima

KCB beat Coast Stima 2-0 in Super League on May 12, 2018.