KCB 2–0 Chemelil Sugar: Result & Stats

KCB

FT

2 – 0

Chemelil Sugar

11/20/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 10Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

KCB49%

×Draw29%

Chemelil Sugar22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCBExpected goals in this matchChemelil Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.77

KCB

1.30

Chemelil Sugar

0.77

KCB creates 69% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 48 away

1.10

creates per match

0.58

0.96

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

KCB

1.10

Chemelil Sugar

0.58

allows per match

KCB

0.96

Chemelil Sugar

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCB+0.00on par

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Chemelil Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

KCB or draw

78%

KCB or Chemelil Sugar

71%

Draw or Chemelil Sugar

51%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+

23%

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals

73%

KCB 2+ goals

37%

KCB 3+ goals

14%

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals

54%

Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals

18%

Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)

69%

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.96 · 138 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.10 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.58 + KCB defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KCB scores more

49%

level

29%

Chemelil Sugar scores more

22%

KCB at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff