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KCB vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

KCB
KCB
FT
0 – 1
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
3/29/2015FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 3Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

KCB48%
×Draw29%
Chemelil Sugar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KCB
1.26
Chemelil Sugar
0.76

KCB creates 66% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 55 away

creates per match

KCB
1.10
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

KCB
0.96
Chemelil Sugar
1.42

finishing

KCB+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

KCB or draw
78%
KCB or Chemelil Sugar
71%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
52%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+
22%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals
72%
KCB 2+ goals
36%
KCB 3+ goals
13%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
53%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
18%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)
68%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.96 · 138 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.10 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + KCB defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KCB scores more
48%
level
29%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
22%

KCB at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: KCB 0–1 Chemelil Sugar

Chemelil Sugar beat KCB 1-0 in FKF Premier League on March 29, 2015.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.