KCB 2–1 Administration Police Fc: Result & Stats

KCB

FT

2 – 1

Administration Police Fc

8/31/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KCB57%

×Draw23%

Administration Police Fc20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KCBExpected goals in this matchAdministration Police Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.94

KCB

1.77

Administration Police Fc

0.94

KCB creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.87

creates per match

1.00

0.87

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

KCB

1.87

Administration Police Fc

1.00

allows per match

KCB

0.87

Administration Police Fc

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KCB+0.00on par

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KCB ↓

Administration Police Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

KCB or draw

80%

KCB or Administration Police Fc

77%

Draw or Administration Police Fc

43%

Winning margin

KCB wins by 2+

32%

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KCB 1+ goals

83%

KCB 2+ goals

53%

KCB 3+ goals

26%

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

61%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

24%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

KCB (draw refunded)

74%

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KCB at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KCB attack 1.87 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + KCB defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KCB scores more

57%

level

23%

Administration Police Fc scores more

20%

KCB at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "KCB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff