Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KB vs Kría — Cup 2019

KB
KB
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Kría
Kría
3/31/2023CupCup · 1st RoundLeiknisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KB39%
×Draw19%
Kría42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KB
2.54
Kría
2.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

KB
1.67
Kría
1.60

allows per match

KB
3.67
Kría
3.40

finishing

KB+0.00on par
Kría+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KB ↓

Kría →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

KB or draw
58%
KB or Kría
81%
Draw or Kría
61%

Winning margin

KB wins by 2+
23%
Kría wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

KB 1+ goals
92%
KB 2+ goals
72%
KB 3+ goals
46%
Kría 1+ goals
93%
Kría 2+ goals
73%
Kría 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

KB (draw refunded)
48%
Kría (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KB at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Kría away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KB attack 1.67 + Kría defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Kría attack 1.60 + KB defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KB scores more
39%
level
19%
Kría scores more
42%

Kría at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kría will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: KB 2–4 Kría

Kría beat KB 4-2 in Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Leiknisvöllur in Reykjavík.