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Kazma vs Al Qadsia — Premier League 2019

Kazma
Kazma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Qadsia
Al Qadsia
9/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Al-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Kazma37%
×Draw26%
Al Qadsia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazma
1.37
Al Qadsia
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kazma
1.67
Al Qadsia
1.56

allows per match

Kazma
1.20
Al Qadsia
1.07

finishing

Kazma+0.00on par
Al Qadsia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazma ↓

Al Qadsia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kazma or draw
63%
Kazma or Al Qadsia
74%
Draw or Al Qadsia
63%

Winning margin

Kazma wins by 2+
17%
Al Qadsia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kazma 1+ goals
75%
Kazma 2+ goals
40%
Kazma 3+ goals
16%
Al Qadsia 1+ goals
75%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
40%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kazma (draw refunded)
50%
Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazma at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 81 matches

Al Qadsia away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.07 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazma attack 1.67 + Al Qadsia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Al Qadsia attack 1.56 + Kazma defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kazma scores more
37%
level
26%
Al Qadsia scores more
37%

Kazma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kazma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kazma vs Al Qadsia

Kazma and Al Qadsia drew 0-0 in Premier League on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Sadaqua Walsalam Stadium in Kuwait City.