Kazlų Rūda Kaunas 1–4 Jonava: Result & Stats | Cup

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas

FT

1 – 4

Jonava

4/21/2024

Cup · 1st RoundJonavos dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas4%

×Draw7%

Jonava89%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kazlų Rūda KaunasExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

4.38

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas

0.95

Jonava

4.38

Jonava creates 361% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

5.00

3.75

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas

1.00

Jonava

5.00

allows per match

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas

3.75

Jonava

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–38%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–25%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–34%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (9%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas or draw

11%

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas or Jonava

93%

Draw or Jonava

96%

Winning margin

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas wins by 2+

1%

Jonava wins by 2+

76%

Team goals

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas 1+ goals

61%

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas 2+ goals

25%

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas 3+ goals

7%

Jonava 1+ goals

99%

Jonava 2+ goals

92%

Jonava 3+ goals

78%

Draw no bet

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas (draw refunded)

4%

Jonava (draw refunded)

96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Jonava away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas attack 1.00 + Jonava defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Jonava attack 5.00 + Kazlų Rūda Kaunas defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 4.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Kazlų Rūda Kaunas scores more

4%

level

7%

Jonava scores more

89%

Jonava at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff