Kazlų Rūda Kaunas vs Be1 NFA — Cup 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas5%
Be1 NFA84%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Be1 NFA creates 354% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas ↓
Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches
Be1 NFA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas attack 1.00 + Be1 NFA defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.69
Be1 NFA attack 2.50 + Kazlų Rūda Kaunas defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 84%?"
Be1 NFA at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 84% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas substitutes
Be1 NFA substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sampleKazlų Rūda Kaunas host Be1 NFA on Wednesday, 30 April 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Cup 2020/2021 season.
Cup: Kazlų Rūda Kaunas 1–0 Be1 NFA
Kazlų Rūda Kaunas beat Be1 NFA 1-0 in Cup on April 30, 2025.
Goals: I. Mačiulaitis (89').
The match was played at Kazlų Rūdos stadionas in Kazlų Rūda.