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Kazincbarcikai vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Kazincbarcikai
Kazincbarcikai
FT
2 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
B. Szabo 44'
F. Adam 40'
11/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 17Kolorcity Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kazincbarcikai63%
×Draw20%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazincbarcikai
2.16
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.03

Kazincbarcikai creates 110% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kazincbarcikai
2.79
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Kazincbarcikai
0.53
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Kazincbarcikai+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazincbarcikai ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kazincbarcikai or draw
83%
Kazincbarcikai or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
80%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
37%

Winning margin

Kazincbarcikai wins by 2+
40%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kazincbarcikai 1+ goals
88%
Kazincbarcikai 2+ goals
63%
Kazincbarcikai 3+ goals
36%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
64%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
28%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kazincbarcikai (draw refunded)
79%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazincbarcikai at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazincbarcikai attack 2.79 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.16

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Kazincbarcikai defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kazincbarcikai scores more
63%
level
20%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
17%

Kazincbarcikai at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kazincbarcikai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
L. Ur
40'
F. Adam
44'
B. Szabo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kazincbarcikai 2 – 0 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Kazincbarcikai beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on November 14, 2021.

Goals: F. Adam (40'), B. Szabo (44').

The match was played at Kolorcity Aréna in Kazincbarcika.