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Kazanka vs Zvezda St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Zvezda St. Petersburg
Zvezda St. Petersburg
5/6/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kazanka45%
×Draw25%
Zvezda St. Petersburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.58
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.27

Kazanka creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 89 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.22

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.69

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Zvezda St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Zvezda St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
69%
Kazanka or Zvezda St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Zvezda St. Petersburg
55%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
23%
Zvezda St. Petersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
79%
Kazanka 2+ goals
47%
Kazanka 3+ goals
21%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 1+ goals
72%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 2+ goals
36%
Zvezda St. Petersburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
59%
Zvezda St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Zvezda St. Petersburg away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.69 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Zvezda St. Petersburg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zvezda St. Petersburg attack 1.22 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kazanka scores more
45%
level
25%
Zvezda St. Petersburg scores more
31%

Kazanka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kazanka vs Zvezda St. Petersburg

Zvezda St. Petersburg beat Kazanka 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.