Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kazanka vs Zenit Irkutsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
CANC
10:00
Zenit Irkutsk
Zenit Irkutsk
4/6/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kazanka54%
×Draw25%
Zenit Irkutsk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.65
Zenit Irkutsk
0.92

Kazanka creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Zenit Irkutsk
0.50

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Zenit Irkutsk
1.83

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Zenit Irkutsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
79%
Kazanka or Zenit Irkutsk
75%
Draw or Zenit Irkutsk
46%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
29%
Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
81%
Kazanka 2+ goals
49%
Kazanka 3+ goals
23%
Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals
60%
Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals
23%
Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
72%
Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Zenit Irkutsk away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zenit Irkutsk attack 0.50 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kazanka scores more
54%
level
25%
Zenit Irkutsk scores more
21%

Kazanka at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kazanka vs Zenit Irkutsk — Match Preview

Kazanka face Zenit Irkutsk on April 6, 2021 in this Second League - Group 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.