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Kazanka vs Zenit 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
5/11/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kazanka37%
×Draw25%
Zenit 237%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.41
Zenit 2
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Zenit 2
1.49

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Zenit 2
1.35

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
63%
Kazanka or Zenit 2
75%
Draw or Zenit 2
63%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
17%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
76%
Kazanka 2+ goals
41%
Kazanka 3+ goals
17%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
76%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
41%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
50%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kazanka scores more
37%
level
25%
Zenit 2 scores more
37%

Kazanka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kazanka 0–1 Zenit 2

Zenit 2 beat Kazanka 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 11, 2021.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.