Kazanka 0–1 Krasava Odintsovo: Result & Stats

Kazanka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Krasava Odintsovo

5/15/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 8Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kazanka39%

×Draw25%

Krasava Odintsovo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KazankaExpected goals in this matchKrasava Odintsovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Kazanka

1.48

Krasava Odintsovo

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kazanka

1.47

Krasava Odintsovo

1.50

allows per match

Kazanka

1.33

Krasava Odintsovo

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par

Krasava Odintsovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Krasava Odintsovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw

64%

Kazanka or Krasava Odintsovo

75%

Draw or Krasava Odintsovo

61%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+

19%

Krasava Odintsovo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals

77%

Kazanka 2+ goals

43%

Kazanka 3+ goals

19%

Krasava Odintsovo 1+ goals

76%

Krasava Odintsovo 2+ goals

41%

Krasava Odintsovo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)

52%

Krasava Odintsovo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Krasava Odintsovo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Krasava Odintsovo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Krasava Odintsovo attack 1.50 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kazanka scores more

39%

level

25%

Krasava Odintsovo scores more

36%

Kazanka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff