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Kazanka vs Kairat Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kairat Moskva
Kairat Moskva
5/28/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kazanka40%
×Draw27%
Kairat Moskva33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.33
Kairat Moskva
1.17

Kazanka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Kairat Moskva
1.00

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Kairat Moskva
1.20

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Kairat Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Kairat Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
67%
Kazanka or Kairat Moskva
73%
Draw or Kairat Moskva
60%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
18%
Kairat Moskva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
74%
Kazanka 2+ goals
38%
Kazanka 3+ goals
15%
Kairat Moskva 1+ goals
69%
Kairat Moskva 2+ goals
33%
Kairat Moskva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
55%
Kairat Moskva (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Kairat Moskva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Kairat Moskva defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kairat Moskva attack 1.00 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kazanka scores more
40%
level
27%
Kairat Moskva scores more
33%

Kazanka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kazanka vs Kairat Moskva

Kairat Moskva beat Kazanka 2-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.