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Kazanka vs Dinamo St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo St. Petersburg
Dinamo St. Petersburg
4/9/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kazanka39%
×Draw25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.46
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.49

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.44

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Dinamo St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Dinamo St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
64%
Kazanka or Dinamo St. Petersburg
75%
Draw or Dinamo St. Petersburg
61%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo St. Petersburg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
77%
Kazanka 2+ goals
43%
Kazanka 3+ goals
18%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 2+ goals
41%
Dinamo St. Petersburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
51%
Dinamo St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Dinamo St. Petersburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Dinamo St. Petersburg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dinamo St. Petersburg attack 1.49 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kazanka scores more
39%
level
25%
Dinamo St. Petersburg scores more
36%

Kazanka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kazanka 1–2 Dinamo St. Petersburg

Dinamo St. Petersburg beat Kazanka 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.