Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kazanka vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kazanka
Kazanka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
8/16/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kazanka38%
×Draw24%
Chertanovo Moscow38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazanka
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kazanka
1.47
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Kazanka
1.33
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Kazanka+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazanka ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kazanka or draw
62%
Kazanka or Chertanovo Moscow
76%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
62%

Winning margin

Kazanka wins by 2+
18%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kazanka 1+ goals
78%
Kazanka 2+ goals
44%
Kazanka 3+ goals
19%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
77%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
44%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kazanka (draw refunded)
50%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazanka at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazanka attack 1.47 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Kazanka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kazanka scores more
38%
level
24%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
38%

Kazanka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kazanka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kazanka vs Chertanovo Moscow

Chertanovo Moscow beat Kazanka 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on August 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.