Kazakhstan 0–1 Moldova: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan

Pens

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Moldova

Igor Armas 13'

3/29/2022

UEFA Nations League · Relegation Play-outNur-Sultan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kazakhstan39%

×Draw32%

Moldova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KazakhstanExpected goals in this matchMoldova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.84

Kazakhstan

1.04

Moldova

0.84

Kazakhstan creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

0.60

1.09

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Kazakhstan

1.18

Moldova

0.60

allows per match

Kazakhstan

1.09

Moldova

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Moldova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan ↓

Moldova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Kazakhstan or draw

71%

Kazakhstan or Moldova

68%

Draw or Moldova

61%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

16%

Moldova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

65%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

28%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

9%

Moldova 1+ goals

57%

Moldova 2+ goals

21%

Moldova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

58%

Moldova (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Moldova away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan attack 1.18 + Moldova defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.04

Moldova attack 0.60 + Kazakhstan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kazakhstan scores more

39%

level

32%

Moldova scores more

29%

Kazakhstan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kazakhstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Igor Armas

Moldova · D

8.5

Match Events

13'

Igor Armas↳ Veaceslav Posmac

27'

Vadim Rață

44'

Vladislav Vasiljev

46'

Timur Dosmagambetov← Gafurzhan Suyumbaev

64'

Artur Crăciun← Vadim Bolohan

66'

Aybar Zhaksylykov← Vladislav Vasiljev

66'

Bagdat Kairov← Marat Bystrov

69'

Dmitri Mandricenco← Mihail Platica

73'

81'

84'

87'

103'

Georgy Zhukov← Askhat Tagybergen

103'

Abzal Beysebekov← Nuraly Alip

116'

Aibol Abiken← Abat Aimbetov

117'

Timur Dosmagambetov

120+2'

Artur Ioniță

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KazakhstanMoldova

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots14

4Corners10

17Fouls32

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target4

7Off Target7

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

418Total Passes495

262Accurate Passes338

63%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls32

3Yellow Cards5

4Offsides3