Kazakhstan 1–2 Lithuania: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Lithuania

Abat Aimbetov 38'

Arvydas Novikovas 90+4'

Modestas Vorobjovas 40'

11/18/2020

UEFA Nations League · League C - 6Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kazakhstan52%

×Draw26%

Lithuania22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KazakhstanExpected goals in this matchLithuania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.85

Kazakhstan

1.48

Lithuania

0.85

Kazakhstan creates 74% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.62

1.09

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kazakhstan

1.18

Lithuania

0.62

allows per match

Kazakhstan

1.09

Lithuania

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Lithuania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan ↓

Lithuania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kazakhstan or draw

78%

Kazakhstan or Lithuania

74%

Draw or Lithuania

48%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

26%

Lithuania wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

77%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

43%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

19%

Lithuania 1+ goals

57%

Lithuania 2+ goals

21%

Lithuania 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

71%

Lithuania (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan attack 1.18 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lithuania attack 0.62 + Kazakhstan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kazakhstan scores more

52%

level

26%

Lithuania scores more

22%

Kazakhstan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kazakhstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Askhat Tagybergen

Kazakhstan · M

7.7

Match Events

2'

Yan Vorogovskiy

9'

Saulius Mikoliūnas

33'

Domantas Šimkus

38'

Abat Aimbetov↳ Askhat Tagybergen

40'

Modestas Vorobjovas↳ Egidijus Vaitkūnas

44'

Islambek Kuat

46'

Vytas Gaspuitis← Egidijus Vaitkūnas

50'

Islambek Kuat

50'

Islambek Kuat

58'

Karolis Laukžemis

67'

Tautvydas Eliosius← Gratas Sirgėdas

69'

Toktar Zangylyshbay← Abat Aimbetov

69'

Dmitri Miroshnichenko← Timur Dosmagambetov

76'

Donatas Kazlauskas← Vykintas Slivka

81'

Aibol Abiken

84'

Deimantas Petravičius← Karolis Laukžemis

87'

Sergey Khizhnichenko← Nuraly Alip

90+4'

Arvydas Novikovas↳ Domantas Šimkus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KazakhstanLithuania

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots14

4Corners2

19Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots14

1On Target4

5Off Target9

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

366Total Passes494

263Accurate Passes394

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2