Kazakhstan 1–2 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cyprus

T. Erlanov 34'

N. Ioannou 84'

P. Soteriou 73'

10/10/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 7Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kazakhstan53%

×Draw22%

Cyprus25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KazakhstanExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.30

Kazakhstan

2.00

Cyprus

1.30

Kazakhstan creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kazakhstan

2.00

Cyprus

1.60

allows per match

Kazakhstan

1.00

Cyprus

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kazakhstan or draw

75%

Kazakhstan or Cyprus

78%

Draw or Cyprus

47%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan wins by 2+

31%

Cyprus wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kazakhstan 1+ goals

86%

Kazakhstan 2+ goals

59%

Kazakhstan 3+ goals

32%

Cyprus 1+ goals

73%

Cyprus 2+ goals

37%

Cyprus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)

68%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan attack 2.00 + Cyprus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cyprus attack 1.60 + Kazakhstan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kazakhstan scores more

53%

level

22%

Cyprus scores more

25%

Kazakhstan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kazakhstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

B. Islamkhan

Kazakhstan · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

26'

26'

34'

39'

44'

Constantinos Mintikkis

46'

P. Zachariou← C. Mintikkis

50'

Aibol Abiken

61'

S. Khizhnichenko← T. Zhangylyshbay

62'

M. Špoljarić← G. Merkis

64'

Islambek Kuat

72'

Yuriy Pertsukh

73'

P. Soteriou↳ M. Špoljarić

80'

M. Fedin← A. Abiken

84'

N. Ioannou↳ I. Kosti

88'

R. Margaça← F. Papoulis

90'

A. Tagybergen← I. Kuat

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KazakhstanCyprus

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots10

7Corners4

21Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target4

9Off Target4

2Blocked2

12Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

378Total Passes439

277Accurate Passes336

73%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

21Fouls8

6Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1