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Kazakhstan vs Curaçao — Friendlies 2026

Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Curaçao
Curaçao
A. Tagybergen 36'
M. Samorodov 15'
3/19/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Gloria Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kazakhstan73%
×Draw18%
Curaçao9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kazakhstan
2.08
Curaçao
0.56

Kazakhstan creates 271% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kazakhstan
1.50
Curaçao
0.78

allows per match

Kazakhstan
0.33
Curaçao
2.67

finishing

Kazakhstan+0.00on par
Curaçao+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan ↓

Curaçao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kazakhstan or draw
91%
Kazakhstan or Curaçao
82%
Draw or Curaçao
27%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan wins by 2+
47%
Curaçao wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kazakhstan 1+ goals
87%
Kazakhstan 2+ goals
61%
Kazakhstan 3+ goals
34%
Curaçao 1+ goals
43%
Curaçao 2+ goals
11%
Curaçao 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan (draw refunded)
89%
Curaçao (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Curaçao away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan attack 1.50 + Curaçao defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Curaçao attack 0.78 + Kazakhstan defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kazakhstan scores more
73%
level
18%
Curaçao scores more
9%

Kazakhstan at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kazakhstan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. Samorodov
36'
A. Tagybergen
Kazakhstan
Curaçao
Ali Aliyev
Manager: Ali Aliyev
Dick Advocaat
Manager: Dick Advocaat

Match Recap: Kazakhstan vs Curaçao

Kazakhstan beat Curaçao 2-0 in Friendlies on March 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Samorodov (15'), A. Tagybergen (36').

The match was played at Gloria Sports Arena in Belek.