Kazakhstan U19 1–2 Slovenia U19: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slovenia U19

E. Sarsenbay 76'

L. Topalović 48', 21'

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Sportpark Marsdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kazakhstan U1936%

×Draw24%

Slovenia U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kazakhstan U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.53

Kazakhstan U19

1.46

Slovenia U19

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

2.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kazakhstan U19

1.29

Slovenia U19

1.06

allows per match

Kazakhstan U19

2.00

Slovenia U19

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kazakhstan U19 or draw

61%

Kazakhstan U19 or Slovenia U19

76%

Draw or Slovenia U19

64%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

17%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

77%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

43%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

18%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

78%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

45%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan U19 attack 1.29 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

36%

level

24%

Slovenia U19 scores more

39%

Slovenia U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovenia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

D. Erlan

21'

L. Topalović

43'

Z. Petrovic

45'

46'

A. Sautov← R. Bagdat

48'

L. Topalović

55'

A. Sautov

70'

A. Gaziev← D. Serikuly

70'

A. Omey← S. Primberdiev

70'

E. Sarsenbay← A. Sautov

73'

J. Jelen← D. Pejičić

74'

S. Duysenbek

76'

E. Sarsenbay

80'

N. Grlić← L. Dovžan Karahodžić

81'

L. Golic

84'

R. Asylbaev← S. Duysenbek

86'

N. Elemes

90'

N. Grlic

Kazakhstan

Slovenia

1

6

14

5

3

7

10

⚽2

Topalović

23

Hrvatin

8

▼

Pejičić

20

Kranjčič

17

▼

12

6

5

22

10

8

16

13

▼

Duysenbek

9

▼

Serikuly

18

▼

Primberdi

20

▼

Bagdat

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

46'▲A. Sautov←▼R. Bagdat

70'▲A. Gaziev←▼D. Serikuly

70'▲A. Omey←▼S. Primberdiev

70'▲E. Sarsenbay←▼A. Sautov

84'▲R. Asylbaev←▼S. Duysenbek

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

7Sautov15Gaziev4Omey17Sarsenbay19Asylbaev11Mukhametali14Zhankhaev2Moldakhmet

Manager: M. Brečko

73'▲J. Jelen←▼D. Pejičić

80'▲N. Grlić←▼L. Dovžan Karahodžić

Slovenia U19 substitutes

19Jelen11Grlić12Blažič18Zabukovnik4Anželj9Mlakar15Bilać2Tomšič21Koren

Match Recap: Kazakhstan U19 vs Slovenia U19

Slovenia U19 beat Kazakhstan U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: L. Topalović (21', 48'), E. Sarsenbay (76').

The match was played at Sportpark Marsdijk in Assen.

Kazakhstan U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kazakhstan U19 vs Slovenia U19