Kazakhstan U19 1–1 North Macedonia U19

Kazakhstan U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

North Macedonia U19

z. Mukhametkhanov 25'

A. Zendelovski 81'

10/17/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kazakhstan U1944%

×Draw23%

North Macedonia U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kazakhstan U19Expected goals in this matchNorth Macedonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.47

Kazakhstan U19

1.75

North Macedonia U19

1.47

Kazakhstan U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

2.00

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Kazakhstan U19

1.29

North Macedonia U19

0.93

allows per match

Kazakhstan U19

2.00

North Macedonia U19

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kazakhstan U19 or draw

67%

Kazakhstan U19 or North Macedonia U19

77%

Draw or North Macedonia U19

56%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

23%

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

83%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

52%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

25%

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

77%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

43%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

58%

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan U19 attack 1.29 + North Macedonia U19 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.75

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.93 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

44%

level

23%

North Macedonia U19 scores more

33%

Kazakhstan U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kazakhstan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

31'

36'

39'

45'

54'

57'

60'

60'

68'

73'

D. Serikuly← A. Litosh

73'

M. Yensebayev← T. Agimanov

73'

R. Zhankhaev← G. Valgushev

73'

D. Danev← Z. Nazifi

77'

T. Nikolovski← M. Elmas

81'

A. Zendelovski

85'

T. Sakenov← M. Yensebayev

88'

I. Mendygaliev

90+3'

Ä. Amirzhan← R. Zhankhaev

Kazakhstan

North

1

6

14

5

8

⚽

Zendelovs

7

▼

3

18

10

9

▼

19

1

6

13

3

2

7

▼

Agimanov

22

Abil

23

⚽

Mukhametk

21

▼

Valgushev

15

Nurymbet

9

▼

Litosh

Manager: A. Kuznetsov

73'▲D. Serikuly←▼A. Litosh

73'▲M. Yensebayev←▼T. Agimanov

73'▲R. Zhankhaev←▼G. Valgushev

85'▲T. Sakenov←▼M. Yensebayev

90+3'▲Ä. Amirzhan←▼R. Zhankhaev

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

19Serikuly20Yensebayev14Zhankhaev4Sakenov5Amirzhan18Gabiden10Umirzak12Rikhard

Manager: N. Sabani

73'▲D. Danev←▼Z. Nazifi

77'▲T. Nikolovski←▼M. Elmas

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

11Danev16Nikolovski4Bamijoko15Meljichi20Nuhija2Adili12Stojanovikj17Kaba13Muhtari