Kazakhstan U19 1–4 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Kazakhstan U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Iceland U19

S. Popov 43' (pen)

H. Mikaelsson 44'

O. Óskarsson 28', 4'

A. Birgisson 12'

11/22/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8The Hummel Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kazakhstan U1930%

×Draw24%

Iceland U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kazakhstan U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.73

Kazakhstan U19

1.34

Iceland U19

1.73

Iceland U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.29

creates per match

1.47

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Kazakhstan U19

1.29

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Kazakhstan U19

2.00

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kazakhstan U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kazakhstan U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kazakhstan U19 or draw

53%

Kazakhstan U19 or Iceland U19

76%

Draw or Iceland U19

70%

Winning margin

Kazakhstan U19 wins by 2+

13%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kazakhstan U19 1+ goals

74%

Kazakhstan U19 2+ goals

39%

Kazakhstan U19 3+ goals

15%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

82%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

52%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kazakhstan U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kazakhstan U19 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kazakhstan U19 attack 1.29 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Kazakhstan U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kazakhstan U19 scores more

30%

level

24%

Iceland U19 scores more

47%

Iceland U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Iceland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

O. Óskarsson

11'

A. Birgisson← G. Þórðarson

12'

A. Birgisson

28'

O. Óskarsson

43'

B. Styrmisson

43'

S. PopovPenalty

44'

H. Mikaelsson

46'

A. Turganov← S. Popov

46'

M. Rikhard← N. Politik

46'

B. Brynjólfsson← S. Jörundsson

46'

D. Guðjohnsen← O. Óskarsson

49'

R. Karimov

53'

A. Akhmedov← A. Mukhit

54'

M. Omatay← N. Baybosynov

59'

D. T. Gudjohnsen

60'

M. Toktybay← Y. Trufanov

67'

S. Björnsson← D. Kristjánsson

75'

A. Magnússon← H. Karlsson

88'

M. Omatay

Kazakhstan

Iceland

1

Georgsson

16

Styrmisso

5

Antonsson

14

▼

Kristjáns

6

▼

Jörundsso

7

Guðmundss

4

▼

Karlsson

9

⚽

Mikaelsso

8

▼

Þórðarson

10

⚽2

▼

Óskarsson

3

Gíslason

12

▼

5

3

2

19

▼

Mukhit

10

⚽

▼

17

8

6

13

▼

Baybosyno

20

▼

Trufanov

Manager: V. Masudov

46'▲A. Turganov←▼S. Popov

46'▲M. Rikhard←▼N. Politik

53'▲A. Akhmedov←▼A. Mukhit

54'▲M. Omatay←▼N. Baybosynov

60'▲M. Toktybay←▼Y. Trufanov

Kazakhstan U19 substitutes

15Turganov1Rikhard7Akhmedov11Omatay9Toktybay18Noskov

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

11'▲A. Birgisson←▼G. Þórðarson

46'▲B. Brynjólfsson←▼S. Jörundsson

46'▲D. Guðjohnsen←▼O. Óskarsson

67'▲S. Björnsson←▼D. Kristjánsson

75'▲A. Magnússon←▼H. Karlsson

Iceland U19 substitutes

11Birgisson13Brynjólfsson15Guðjohnsen20Björnsson18Magnússon2Aðalsteinsson12Magnússon19Þorkelsson17Haraldsson